Analyzing the Frontrunners: Top 4 Seeds

#1 USA

Well, who better to start with than the #1 seed. Team USA pulled off their own tiny miracle on ice yesterday, stunning a heavily favored and star powered Canadian team. Patrick Kane, Jamie Langenbrunner, Ryan Kesler and Brian Rafalski outplayed the likes of Sidney Crosby, Jerome Iginla, Rick Nash, and Scott Neidermayer for 60 minutes and never trailed. Ryan Miller's performance heavily overshadowed the mediocre performance at best that Martin Brodeur put in, and though the result was in doubt until the final 50 seconds, Team USA prevailed.

We always knew this team was good, but the sheer firepower of Canada, Russia, and Sweden almost made the Americans an afterthought. It was supposed to be all on Miller, and they would only be able to medal if he put in the performance of his life. Well, that talk is no more. The US has been the most complete and effective team in this tournament so far, with a special combo of grit, goaltending, natural scoring ability, and smart play and positioning, as well as a healthy mix of veterans and young studs.

Miller has been sensational and hasn't looked at all off his game. The roleplayers, especially Chris Drury, have been doing there job and more. Bobby Ryan, Kesler, Parise, Kessel, and Kane have been tearing it up, getting scoring chance after scoring chance and playing a hard, intimidating physical game. The defense is rock solid with Jack and Erik Johnson playing smart hockey, rarely out of position. Brian Rafalski is having the tournament of his life.

The US got a great draw by being the number 1 seed. They play the winner of Belarus and Switzerland at 3 PM ET on Wednesday, and if they advance (and they will), by the time they get to the semis either Canada or Russia will be out of the tournament. If they win the quarters they will face either the Czechs, Latvia, or Finland, who are all beatable. Do that, you've got a gold medal game.

This team is very good. They've earned this seed. And now, they have confidence. They havn't been beaten yet. The last US team that won a gold medal in the Olympics didn't lose a game. Lets hope for a repeat.

#2 SWEDEN

If there's one team I'm scared to meet in the Gold Metal game, its these guys. Their offense is clicking, with, among others, the Sedins, Foppa, and the ever dangerous and underrated pivot Nicklas Backstrom. They have Nick Lidstrom, perhaps the best defenseman of his generation, anchoring the blueline. They also happen to have the best goalie in the world. Henrik Lundqvist has allowed no goals in three games this tournament. Thats scary.

The Swedes have been quietly doing work, knocking off a very good Finland team last night in dominating fashion. They will play the winner of Slovakia and Norway (so Slovakia), and while that should be a good game the Swedes shouldn't have a problem. They will face with Russia or Canada in the Semi's which should be an incredible game either way. Who else wants to see an Ovechkin Backstrom showdown? Or see if Fedorov can recreate his high glove snipe on Lundqvist? Or see Douglas Murray lay out Sid? Lots of possibilities, and chances are we will see the Swedes take on one of those teams.

With their slick offense, well rounded defense, and top-of-the-class goaltending, no one would be surprised to see the Swedes cruise to the gold medal game. I guarantee the Americans will be watching what happens on this side of the bracket very closely.

#3 RUSSIA

How can you not bet the over on an offense that contains Ovechkin, Datsyuk, Semin, Malkin, and Kovalchuk, as well as two of the better goalies in the game in Nabokov and Bryzgalov? The Russians looked out of it for many stretches during the round robin play, but thats why you got a guy like Ovechkin on your squad. When he's not scoring goals, guarantee he will find a way to help your team. In the game against the Czechs, a close and hotly contested game, he changed the tide and sucked the life out of the Czechs and their superstar by absolutely destroying Jaromir Jagr open ice, which directly led to a Malkin goal off a slick backhanded pass from Semin.

Not much to say about this team; their assets are obvious, their flaws just as much so. They need to stay in games and they need to want to win more than the other team. They need to play smart defense and try not to win games by themselves as star players so often try to do.

Chances are they will play Canada in the quarters, and you better bet this team wants to take down the hometown boys. Ovechkin will be headhunting for Canada's favorite son, and the Canadian questions in net are not the best thing to have when playing possibly the most explosive offense ever assembled in hockey history. And Ovie is hungry. That's enough to strike fear into any opponent.

#4 FINLAND

Often overlooked, the Finns could have locked up a number one seed by beating the hated Swedes last night. They're a good team with a lot of potential and a skilled group of forwards backed up by a very formidable goaltender in Miikka Kiprusoff. Their offense is led by the veteran Teemu Selanne and cemented by very effective offensive players in Mikko Koivu and Olli Jokinen. Their defense is their weak point and they will be without Joni Pitkanen who is serving a one game suspension for a hit to the head.

All and all I don't see the Finns going far and if theres big potential for an upset by the Czechs (assuming they beat Latvia). Even if they make it far, I just don't think the Finnish defense can hold up against the big guns of the offensive powerhouses, as Sweden demonstrated last night. Teemu's sheer will and a sensational performance from Kippy could get them a good way, but I don't see them finishing particularly high. Look for the Czechs to capitalize.

Recap: USA 5, Canada 3

In case you have not heard, US hockey is having a pretty good 2010 in games against the Canadians. After a heartbreaking loss on the last day of 2009 in the World Juniors, the US has responded with two major upsets of their rivals to the north. Tonight was one of those upsets. The USA had a great all around game, withstanding flurry after flurry from a hungry Canadian team trying to avoid embarrassment on their home turf.

Some thoughts on the game:

• We have pointed out that Ryan Miller needed to be spectacular for the USA to have a shot in these games. Well, he realizes that too, and put in a truly sensational performance in a game in which the US never trailed, largely due to his efforts.
• Brian Rafalski has been Team USA's biggest offensive threat so far. And like we have mentioned before, its not the power of his shot or the quickness of his release, its the accuracy with which he directs the puck towards the net. Both goals (and the assist to Langenbrunner) were low, accurate shots that seemed to be placed just perfectly.
• What an effort by Ryan Kessler. I think Corey Perry forgot he didn't have Marty back in the net, because he tried to block Kesler's body off, which simply allowed the Vancouver Canuck the room to sweep the puck into the empty cage. It was a killer for the Canadians, who seemed on the verge of scoring for the previous minute and a half.
• How about Captain America? Jamie Langenbrunner got a crucial deflection off that Rafalski shot and put the US up by 2 and started the beginning of the Canadian panic attack. His presence was felt elsewhere as well, with his energy, quickness, and leadership propelling this US team.
• Speaking of energy, Chris Drury was supposed to be an afterthought and many criticized his inclusion on the team. Two big goals for the US has put an end to that kind of talk.
• No one can ever convince me that Canada doesn't need Mike Green. I am convinced that during that late flurry with two minutes in the third Greenie would have found a hole in Ryan Miller's armor with that patented snapshot of his, especially with how exhausted the USA forecheckers were. That's his forte.
• Crosby got two of his own patented goals, a garbage goal in front of the net and a deflection from around the same area. Too bad that second one was against his own goalie.
• Sweet move by Dustin Brown, faking the pass then going back between his legs a' la Ovechkin. Almost worked too.

So, Team USA stuns everyone and yet does what everyone was saying they had the potential to accomplish. If these two teams meet in the medal round, it will be a game for the ages. Right now though, the US gets to wait while Canada takes on Germany. I'm sure the Canadians are shaking in their skates.

But at this point for these guys, who knows?

Recap: Russia: 4, Czech Republic: 2

The Russians beat the Czechs today by a final score of 4-2. Evgeni Malkin tallied twice, book-ending a goal by former Cap Viktor Kozlov. Pavel Datsyuk scored on an empty net in the games final minute to seal the deal for the Russians.

The highlight of the game, however, came early in the third period when Jaromir Jagr carried the puck on a rush through the neutral zone and was absolutely annihilated by Alexander Ovechkin. As a dazed Jagr got to his skates, Alexander Semin picked up the puck in the Czech zone and zipped a sweet cross ice pass to Malkin who buried the puck past Vokoun for his second of the day.

With the exception of their struggling power play the Russians finally put together a complete game. Evgeni Nabokov played well, stopping 23 of 25 shots that he faced. This Russian team has been described as a hybrid between North American and European Hockey. They play with the physical presence and grit of the North Americans while displaying the traditional flash and dash of the Europeans. The Russians are at their best when they demonstrate this style of play and for today at least, they did.

As I mentioned earlier the Russian power play has struggled in the tournament. Today they went 1-3 and despite scoring it looked pitiful at times. A lineup with Ovechkin, Datsyuk, Malkin, Markov, Gonchar, Semin, and Kovalchuk should score more than twice in three games.

USA vs. Canada

If you are a fan of U.S. Hockey, then today feels like Christmas. At 7pm EST the US mens hockey team will take on the heavily favored Canadians. The game, being in Vancouver, will naturally have a very pro-Canadian crowd on hand, and the depth of the Canadian squad is unparalleled in these games. They have arguably the greatest goalie to ever play the game in between the pipes. They have a ridiculous offense (in which Toews is on their forth line) and a punishing defense. Most people in hockey community will say advantage Canada. Those same people will predict a victory for Canada and a bye into the quarterfinal round.

I must however take a page out of ESPN College Football analyst Lee Corso's book and say, "not so fast my friends." The Canadians have struggled at times in this tournament and posted a very unimpressive win against the Swiss in a shootout. The US should not be looked at as the same team of your fathers generation; this team is comprised entirely of NHL caliber players. They may not have the depth of the Canadians but they are certainly capable of beating any team in this tournament. They are lead by a world class goaltender in Ryan Miller and by one of the best natural goal scorers in the game in Zach Parise.

The Canadians will be motivated early by their lackluster performance against the Swiss as well as the raucous crowd. If the Americans are not able to weather the storm early then it could get ugly. But, if they escape the 1st period in a close game (which I predict they will), and if Ryan Miller stands on his head (which I predict he will), then I expect to see the upset in full force tonight in Vancouver.

USA 4 Canada 3.

What Slovakia's Win Means for the Tournament.

Plain and simple the Slovaks are for real. The Russians, on the other hand, may not be. I was convinced five days ago that the Russians were a lock for the gold medal game. After watching them play twice I am rethinking my position. Their problems start with the roster, but they do not end there; the disparity in the level of talent between the NHL and KHL is too obvious. Former NHL stars like Viktor Kozlov and Sergei Fedorov seem overwhelmed playing against this level of talent. Kozlov, who made a career in the NHL with his elusive stick handling skills and a lightning quick release looked as though he had never even heard of hockey let alone played it before tonight. It would not be too outrageous to think that the quality of play in the KHL has lessened the ability of these former NHL stars.

The KHL players were not the only aspects of Russia's performance that I would deem atrocious. The coaching by Bykov was so pitiful that it would have made Bruce Cassidy look like Scotty Bowman. The Russians will go as far as Ovechkin, Semin, Malkin, Kovy, Datsyuk, Volchenkov, and all the other NHL players will take them. Bykov has to stop trying to please the Russian Hockey brass by giving the KHL players more minutes than they deserve. In overtime Kozlov and Fedorov had no need to be on the ice when players like Ovechkin, Semin, Malkin, Kovy, and Datsyuk were sitting on the bench.

My final point of contention with Bykov tonight was having Ovechkin shoot 3 times in the shootout. Ovechkin is a great goal scorer but it is no mystery that he has his struggles in shootout/penalty shot situations. He scored on the first shot and I have no qualms with giving him a second shot. He failed miserably on the second attempt but was nonetheless rewarded with a third chance two rounds later, which he missed again. Bykov should try Datsyuk next time. I hear he is pretty good.

As for the Slovaks, they are so skilled and so fast that it is becomes very hard to overlook their chances of advancing far into this tournament. No, they do not have the depth of Canada, Sweden, or Russia but they do have 7 or 8 top tier forwards and arguably the games best defenseman in Zdeno Chara. If they can score at the rate they are capable of and get consistent goaltending from Halak then Slovakia might just be able to turn some heads in Vancouver.

Olympic Recap: USA: 6, Norway: 1

So, I guess we were close enough in our prediction of this one. Team USA had this game in control from the beginning, and piled it on an overwhelmed Norwegian team late to put out of reach what had been a 3-1 contest. But the US game wasn't without problems, problems they have to address in practice over the next few days, most notably discipline, chemistry, and playing Wilson's systems better.

Some thoughts on the game:

• The sequence that led to the put away fourth goal for Team USA was a thing of beauty. Jack Johnson with the double move, dangling two Norwegian players, almost sniping it far side over Grotnes' right shoulder, then an easy rebound right to Ryan Malone.
• Neither of Brian Rafalski's shots were particularly hard, but they were both placed perfectly. Still, I'm pretty sure Brodeur would have had that first one that went five-hole.
• There were defensive breakdowns aplenty in this game on both sides, and the US can't afford to give Canada's high-powered offense chances like that. The USA defense in particular has to watch how often it pinches, there were far too many risky ventures into the offensive zone today that led to big Norwegian scoring chances.
• I'm not sure how much I like Langenbrunner on the point during the power play. Sure, four forwards works for teams like the Caps and the Thrashers (at least it used to), but Langenbrunner, while a very good player and leader, is obviously not on the same level as Ovechkin and Kovalchuk. The US team would be better off having two offensive D-men on the point, and they've got plenty of depth there with Johnson and Rafalski.
• Ryan Miller made some big saves, and was locked in the entire game. This is his tournament, and he's been playing like it.
• I would love to have David Backes on the Caps.
• I don't know how people give any weight to anything Mike Milbury says. Just looking at the guys record as a GM for the Isle is enough for me to mute the TV any time he talks.

Now, the easy part is over. The powerhouse that is Team Canada awaits on Sunday. Time to get to work. The line chemistry is getting better, the defense looks solid, but its all on Miller. He has got to put this team on his back to give the Americans a chance. We'll take the over.

Niklas Hagman's Dirty Goal

Granted, it was against Belarus. Still, Hagman made Belarusan defenseman Aleksandr Makritsky look silly.

Olympic Predictions 2/18/10

Canada 6 - Switzerland 1
The offensive fire power of Canada can exceed 6 goals against an inferior Swiss team but Hiller has the tools to keep it close early, look for Canada to break the score open late.

US 5 - Norway 0
The Americans are not likely to steam roll any opponents in this tournament but with great goaltending, solid top two forward combos, and a punishing blue line do not be surprised to see this team medal.

Russia over Slovakia
Peter Bondra would tell you Slovakia but Peter Blogdra disagrees.
Between the two creators of this blog there is no consensus on the final score. One of us is reasoning that games on back to back nights coupled with a lesser level of talent should yield a lopsided win for the Russians. The other is under the impression that a healthy Slovakian team is as dangerous as any in this tournament. Nonetheless the Russians should win so long as they do not treat this as a mens league game like they did against Latvia.